This morning, what appears to be an improvised explosive device detonated on a London Underground train at Parson’s Green station. At the time of writing, we know that:
- 18 people have received non-serious injuries, mostly burns
- There are no confirmed fatalities
- It is being treated as a terrorist incident.
I’m basing what I know purely on what I’ve read on the BBC, as I trust them to report accurately and to verify their statements. I will be making some assumptions, and these are based on my 30+ years of living in the UK. I’m not a terrorism expert (although colleagues of mine are) — I am just a regular person who follows the news.
1. We don’t know who did it
Naturally I’ve seen some people jump to conclusions that this is an attack by Islamic fundamentalists groups, possibly linked to Islamic State. We don’t know this.
Notably, this did not appear to be a suicide bomb. Most of the recent attacks, especially the Manchester Arena attack in May this year, were caused by suicide bombers. This appeared to be an abandoned object.
Leaving suspicious bags or packages behind was a tactic more commonly used by the IRA, the Irish terrorist group. It has been a long time since there was an attack by an Irish group, thanks to the peace process in Northern Ireland. And I would be surprised if this marked a resurgence.
2. It looked like a bomb
It’s rare that we get to see the remains of what exploded. In this case, it appeared to be a large plastic tub contained inside a plastic bag from a well-known German supermarket (I feel sorry for their PR team). Photos and videos of the smouldering remains also seemed to show wires, and the BBC report that the remains of a timer were recovered.
This, in my mind, rules out this being an accident. My view is that this was an incendiary device that was deliberately planted.
3. It didn’t do what it was supposed to do
The device did explode, but appears to have caused minor injury. Again, from the BBC news report, it seems to me that more people were injured trying to evacuate from the scene, than by the explosion itself.
Because we have been able to see photo and videos of the device, we have also been able to see how little damage has been caused to tube train. And whilst I have sympathy for the victims of the attack, I am also pleased that the injuries were minor.
This bomb did not managed to cause the devastation brought on by the bomb at the Manchester Arena, nor the tube bombings of July 2005.
4. It may be some time before a terrorist group claims responsibility
Because it wasn’t a large explosion, and hasn’t resulted in fatalities, I don’t think that any of the major terrorist groups will rush to claim responsibility for it. If anything, this may be viewed as a failure; I expect that services on that part of the District Line will be disrupted for a few days, but it won’t cause widespread panic or disruption.
5. London remains open
I think we’ll see the usual responses following a terrorist attack: a potential raising of the overall threat level, more police on the streets and so on. But it hasn’t — and probably won’t — send large parts of London into lockdown.
Indeed, London Underground is still running a reasonably good service on most other lines, as I write this a few hours after the explosion. Parson’s Green is on the Wimbledon branch of the District Line and so this is, of course, closed. The rest of the Wimbledon branch between Earl’s Court and Edgware Road is also experiencing delays, which is understandable, and there are some delays on the Piccadilly Line.
But the rest of the Tube is fine. London is a resilient city that has seen more than its fair share of attempts to terrify its residents. I think most Londoners will see the events of today as something of an inconvenience, rather than a concern.
As I said before, I’m not an expert — this is mostly a collection of my thoughts. I wish the victims a speedy recovery, and await the outcome of the full investigation into what happened. I also hope that this isn’t used as another attack on the vast majority of peaceful Muslims (especially if it turns out that this wasn’t an Islamist attack).
This post originally appeared on Medium.
